Eyal Ofer, an expert on Hamas's economy, said that the key to the Gaza campaign is effectively conquering Beit Hanoun in an interview with Maariv on Sunday.

He believes that Israel should issue an evacuation notice for the northern part of the Strip so that the residents move to the south—and fall under Egypt's responsibility: “Otherwise, we are endangering our soldiers.”

As the IDF continues operations throughout the Gaza Strip and a clear, stable solution still seems far off, Ofer warned on Sunday that Israel is continuing to act based on a flawed worldview, and that it does not understand the strategic basis of the campaign. It is leading itself into a dangerous trap that could exact a much heavier price.

Ofer presented a sharp and uncompromising stance and criticized the conduct of both the military and political leadership: “The IDF, unfortunately, for at least 14 months now, does not understand the basis of the campaign in Gaza. Yesterday, we paid for that in blood. And it’s going to get much worse.”

According to him, the issue is not only a failure to understand Hamas as a military, economic, and ideological entity, but also fundamental misunderstandings of the geographical significance of the Strip for Hamas.

“I’ve been writing for many months that Beit Hanoun is the most strategic place in the Strip and that it must be empty—permanently. It should be part of a security zone for Israel where no person is allowed to enter. And therefore, if the city is empty and anyone moving within it is bombed, the existence of a tunnel becomes irrelevant.”

IDF soldiers operating in Gaza following an overnight strike (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
IDF soldiers operating in Gaza following an overnight strike (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)

Ofer's strategic plan

Ofer harshly criticized the policy that allowed civilians to return to the area and pointed out that the IDF is now caught in a trap, partially of its own making:

“The IDF reached a point where the city was emptied. But since then, displaced persons have been allowed to return. Now, the IDF uses the phrase in briefings: ‘Hamas is hiding in the cities of the displaced,’ while repeatedly making the mistake of thinking it must destroy every tunnel shaft while also taking responsibility for feeding Gaza’s residents.”

According to him, this policy is effectively turning the IDF into an occupying force, putting both its soldiers and the overall goals of the campaign at risk: “In this situation, Israel will emerge as the occupier of Gaza. Many soldiers will die trying to take over every alley and maintain the population under occupation.”

Instead, Ofer proposes a completely different strategic plan, which he claims is based on international law: “We must act in accordance with international law to protect the civilian population. First, a sweeping evacuation order from all of northern Gaza must be issued. Then the water pipelines from Israel to northern Gaza can be shut off, and only afterward proceed with an artillery softening stage that could last for days. The population must first be allowed to move south.”

According to him, only after the IDF completely clears the area of civilians can it operate with full force without falling into a moral and political trap: “On the other hand, Israel should allow them a place to be and a way to receive food and water—but it is not the IDF’s job to take care of them in places where Israel does not control. Therefore, the IDF should withdraw from the south of the Strip and allow the population of Gaza to once again depend on Egypt.”